State of the Climate (System)Emergency 

Preindustrial 
​concentration (WMO)

CO2 278 ppm ​

Atmospheric  CO2
​ unprecedented rate of increase (WMO 2017)
1 June 2020 Atmospheric CO2
​highest in 23 million years 
October 2020
​ Dire State of the Climate Emergency pdf 
Carbon sinks are losing efficiency 
           The dire accelerating state of the climate emergency at the end January 2022 

Global emissions slashed today will not make a significant change to global temperature till mid-century (Delayed emergence of a global temperature response after emission mitigation, July 2020)
> As of January 2022 all climate system indicators are increasing as fast as ever, several faster​








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​> The rapid post Covid-19 emissions rebound and UN COP26 failure shows high emitting governments have no intention of doing anything but keep pushing fossil fuels






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Current policies put the world at ​about 3C by 2100, and that is much higher all-be-it slower after 2100
  ​(Climate Action Tracker, UNEP) 










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> Globally disastrous 1.5C, with emissions still increasing, is absolutely unavoidable at around ​2030
> With global emissions still increasing, and various systemic lags to temperature stabilization, catastrophic
  ​ 2C ​will 
occur around 2045  ​(IPCC AR6 WG1)

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> ​Fossil fuel subsidies have been increasing and phase out was rejected at the 2021 COP26,  
> There is no planned reform or rationalization ​of the constant global GDP increase of the world
  ​economy, which is the driver of increasing fossil fuels



> Global temperature trend and climate change (WMO 2021) are accelerating ​

Climate change driven extreme weather events of all kinds are increasing, with compound events. 
 ​  which will continue (2021 IPCC AR5, WG1)​









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> Clean new renewable energy is increasing but only accounts for 1-2% of global energy (2021 IEA, EIA)
> Atmospheric greenhouse gas emissions (CO2 eq.) are increasing at an accelerating rate​​ (PBL 2021) ​











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Cumulative CO2 emissions and other climate indicators track worst-case RCP8.5
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(​RCP8.5 tracks cumulative CO2 emissions, PNAS,C. R. Schwalm, PNAS, 2020







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> ​Surface ozone (GHG & global warming feedback) in the northern hemisphere is increasing (A. Gaudel, 2020). 
Atmospheric CO2 is now 417 ppm and CO2 equivalent ​504 ppm (NOAA 2021)











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  Atmospheric CO2 eq. puts the world above 2C equilibrium long term warming ​

All atmospheric GHGs are currently increasing at an accelerating rate​










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Radiative heat forcing is increasing rapidly, ​but NASA & NOAA (June 2021) has found that
​   Earth’s energy imbalance doubled during the 14-year period from 2005 to 2019.








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> To 2021 the eight warmest years have been the past eight years 


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>  Increasing trend in global warming average and global warming index 

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> ​Summer of 2021 was a record high surface heating for global land  (Carbon Brief)
> July 2021 was the hottest month on record (NOAA) 

The Arctic is now warming 3X global average (AMAP 2021)

The 2021 end of summer ​Arctic sea ice volume was a record low (NOAA, Arctic Report Card, 2021)

The Arctic carbon sink has switched carbon sink to source (NOAA Arctic Report Card,2016, confirmed 2019)​

> The AMOC (North Atlantic great ocean circulation conveyer) is on a slowing trend​  

>​ The mass of the Antarctic and Arctic ice sheets have been rapidly declining 

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> Sea level rise is accelerating​, now mainly from ice sheet melting.



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> ​The amplification of Arctic warming (compared to global) has been increasing since 2000.
> Thawing Arctic permafrost is releasing methane, CO2, and nitrous oxide feedback emissions​
> ​Ocean heating, acidification and de-oxygenation, are accelerating, all damaging to ocean life
   ​and more so in combination 






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 Ocean extremes of heat (marine heat-waves), surface acidification ​and de-oxygenation
   ​are increasing and increasingly occurring in combination i.e. compound marine extremes
  ​ (Nicolas Gruber,15 Dec 2021)

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Global CO2 emissions